20.    AFRICA

20.1   The end of the cold war and the end of apartheid marginalised Africa. While Africa's population of over 700 million has been amongst the fastest growing in the world, its economy has been largely stagnant and it is of little significance in global economic terms. External economic interest in Africa has been heavily focussed on resource extraction. Commercial activity is often in the hands of ethnic minorities.

20.2   Africa is vulnerable to humanitarian catastrophes for a number of reasons.

• Agriculture/subsistence economy: vulnerability to natural disasters - drought, flood;
• Government weaknesses;
• Civil disorder, ethnic and tribal conflict, fed by proliferation of small arms;
• Disease - HIV/AIDS amongst others.

20.3   State building in much of Africa is work in progress. Political structures are often dominated by one group (tribe, clan) to the exclusion of others. The illegal arms trade, child soldiers and the difficulty of disarming ex-combatants will continue to be destabilising elements in many parts of Africa.

20.4   Africa has been fertile ground for new peacekeeping missions for the United Nations, but the record of success is patchy. The warring factions in Mozambique have laid down their arms and entered a national government, but the same has not happened in Angola, despite years of involvement by the UN. The UN/regional missions in West Africa have only been partly successful. Sierra Leone is not stable; Liberia only just so.

20.5   Efforts to share the burden of peacekeeping with the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) have not been successful, but some states have contributed beyond the mean. With South Africa's disavowal of the nuclear option on the eve of ending apartheid, Sub-Saharan Africa is free of weapons of mass destruction and is likely to remain so. The Treaty of Pelindaba establishes a nuclear weapons free zone for the continent of Africa, island state members of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) and all islands the OAU considers to be part of Africa. It has been signed by a number of states but is still short of the number required to bring it into force. Post-apartheid South Africa has engaged diplomatically with the main conflicts in the southern part of the continent. President Museveni of Uganda has demonstrated that a well organised army can have an impact well beyond a nation's borders.

20.6   The Commonwealth has had success in monitoring political developments in its member states, and in setting benchmarks for progress. Although Nigeria has now returned to civilian rule, the Commonwealth can be expected to keep a busy African portfolio.

20.7   Africa is likely to continue to place demands on the international community - whether for humanitarian relief, peacekeeping or new approaches to trade, investment and debt.

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