13. LATIN AMERICA
13.1 The empty waters of the southeast Pacific act as a strategic and psychological barrier between New Zealand and the countries of Central and South America. That barrier is becoming less formidable as a result of a number of developments, mostly affecting the south and east of South America.
- After many decades of military rule and protectionist economic policies, in the countries of the southern cone democratic governments prevail, outward looking economic policies have been adopted and points of friction between countries are generally managed peaceably.
- As part of this outward orientation many Latin American countries have looked across the Pacific to Asia. Three are members of APEC. An East Asia Latin American Forum has been established recently but its significance has yet to emerge. And several possible free trade agreements are being studied.
- Brazil and Argentina have turned away from their nuclear aspirations. All countries of the region (except Cuba) are members of the Latin American nuclear free zone.
- Over time the now democratic countries will probably reform their military forces. This will affect the way in which these countries interact with the international community and international perceptions of the region.
13.2 All this makes for a positive environment for the development of relations with New Zealand. We judge that this will continue, but that the political and economic importance of the United States in the hemisphere will always act as a brake on the resources available for the fostering of other relationships.
13.3 The situation in the north of South America is less promising. Ecuador has just escaped a coup. Venezuela is ruled by a populist president who is threatening his neighbours. Colombia is still dominated by drug barons. There are some more widespread problems.
- Indigenous people in many Latin American countries have been politically at a disadvantage. The troubles in Chiapas, the recent abortive coup in Ecuador and the Mayan role in the Guatamalan election in 1999 are a reminder that that their quiescence is well over.
- Many Latin American countries have substantial non-indigenous underclasses whose prospects are blighted by inadequate resources for education. The tension between the haves and the have-nots will continue to bedevil Latin societies
- Despite a major US focus on drugs, they are still a problem in the region. There are risks that the Pacific could become a regular transit point or soft target for drug barons.
- Caribbean countries have, in many instances, problems akin to those being experienced in the Pacific island countries.
13.4 Together these make it much less likely that the countries of central America and the Caribbean, with the exception of Mexico, will look out to the Pacific or provide political or economic openings for New Zealand.
