DISARMAMENT AND NON-PROLIFERATION

New Zealand has a strong interest in international efforts to promote disarmament and support the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

• The existence and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, biological and chemical) and their delivery vehicles represents a continuing threat to international peace and security. New Zealand is an active participant in international efforts to achieve the reduction and elimination of nuclear weapons and to enforce a ban on chemical and biological weapons.

The outlook for the nuclear disarmament agenda is mixed.

• On the positive side, the recent Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference agreed a programme of nuclear disarmament measures which has heightened hopes for future progress. Importantly, the five nuclear weapon states gave new political undertakings to the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals. Also agreed were new commitments to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in security policies, to further unilateral reductions alongside the US/Russia bilateral strategic nuclear arms reduction (START I and II) process, and to address reductions of tactical nuclear weapons. New measures to improve the transparency of nuclear stockpiles, and accountability to NPT non-nuclear states for their reduction, were also adopted.

• Implementation of the new NPT commitments is likely to take time and may face obstacles. For the nuclear weapon states, progress will depend on their assessment of their own security environment. Current military doctrines foresee the retention of nuclear arms well into the future. Commitment to rapid reductions of stockpiles is not strong. The START I and II treaties do not require the weapons to be eliminated, do not yet encompass tactical nuclear weapons, and are often hostage to political fortunes (there is some prospect of renewed progress in the START talks with Russian ratification of START II, though this is caveated by uncertainties related to the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty and US proposals for missile defence, see below) .

• Of great concern is the prospect of further proliferation of nuclear weapons. The NPT provides a framework to counter the proliferation of nuclear weapons beyond the existing nuclear weapon states. This is seriously challenged by the South Asian nuclear tests, and by Israel's ambiguous nuclear programme. There is the continuing threat of "rogue" states (including Iraq and North Korea) acquiring nuclear weapons. Nuclear technology is no longer out of reach of emerging industrial economies.

• Prospects for early entry into force of the CTBT are not good: India, Pakistan, and North Korea have not yet signed and last year the US Senate failed to ratify the treaty. There is stalemate in the Conference on Disarmament, delaying the commencement of negotiations to ban the production of fissile material for use in weapons. Uptake of the new strengthened IAEA safeguards on nuclear installations has been slower than hoped.

The spread of long-range missile technology is complicating the disarmament agenda.

• The proposed (but as yet unproven) US National Missile Defence system carries with it the risk of undermining the US/Russia Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, the cornerstone of strategic stability under-pinning nuclear arms reductions. Its associated Theatre Missile Defence system risks complicating the regional security situation in North Asia. Because of concerns they cause both China and Russia (over the potential to undermine the deterrent capacity of their nuclear forces and, in the case of China, its situation regarding Taiwan) National Missile

• Defence/Theatre Missile Defence proposals have become a negotiating chip at various points in the disarmament agenda. New Zealand has joined with a coalition of like-minded countries to press for faster elimination of nuclear arsenals

• The international nuclear disarmament agenda spawns a complex set of coalitions and alliances. There are diverse interests involved - the nuclear weapon states, those with aspirations to join the club, those who don't have them but are comforted that others do, those who want to see a determined pace of balanced reductions, and those who want to move rapidly to wholesale elimination within a specified time-frame.

• New Zealand is standing apart from many of its traditional defence allies and forging links with a new group of like-minded countries. New Zealand is playing a leading role in the New Agenda Coalition (New Zealand, Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, South Africa, Sweden). The objective of the coalition to elicit new political undertakings from the nuclear weapon states to the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals received a boost when this was agreed at the recent NPT Review Conference. Many of the Coalition's other nuclear disarmament proposals have now been adopted by the entire NPT membership.

More progress is being made on biological and chemical weapons and landmines

• Prospects look better in the field of biological weapons, with progress in negotiations on verification protocols under the Biological Weapons Convention (although a determined proliferator might still escape detection). Implementation of the ban on chemical weapons is underway. International efforts against landmines received a fillip from the conclusion of the Ottawa Convention, though a number of important states have failed to sign it. Illegal trade in small arms is attracting closer attention - both in the UN and regionally. This is important for New Zealand given the potential for flows of small arms to destabilise countries in our region.

Shipment of radio-active materials through New Zealand's immediate neighbourhood is an ongoing concern.

• Public concerns about the safety of shipments of nuclear materials through the Tasman Sea and South Pacific remain strong. While the transport States (UK, France, and Japan) have provided new assurances to New Zealand about safety, and respect for our EEZ, the international liability and compensation regime in the event of an accident falls well short of expectations. New Zealand is looking at the possibility of a Southern Hemisphere Free of Nuclear Weapons

• Nuclear weapon free zones are part of the international security architecture. The four zones in place in Latin America, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia and Africa are progressively codifying the transition to a nuclear weapon-free world. New zones are sought in regions of tension, including the Middle East and South Asia. New Zealand is reviving the concept promoted by Brazil for a Southern Hemisphere free of nuclear weapons. Advocacy of this has a solid constituency among zone members but will be resisted if perceived by the nuclear weapon states to encroach on freedom of navigation under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Disarmament in New Zealand's defence and security policy

Disarmament policy and defence policy need to be complementary

• Disarmament is a central element in global and regional security, and security policy needs to be fully consistent with disarmament policy. There will also be areas in which defence policy or resources can provide practical support for New Zealand's disarmament agenda. It is important for New Zealand's defence policy to support and complement the exercise and implementation of New Zealand's disarmament policy.

• International disarmament initiatives can help manage tensions and reduce the chances of conflict in regions where risks of proliferation or even use of weapons of mass destruction are particularly acute. An active New Zealand role in disarmament is central to our wider security objectives.

Anti-nuclear policy limits the extent of military co-operation with some major international players

• The US will not exercise with New Zealand while our anti-nuclear policy remains in place, and other restrictions on defence co-operation will continue. This has not precluded us from working together with US forces in peace-keeping operations or "coalitions of the willing".

Work on conventional weapons is also important

• Landmines are an area in which the NZDF can contribute to New Zealand's disarmament objectives. Our policy means there may be a grey area in joint military activity with other countries in combat situations where landmines are used. New Zealand will want to participate actively in global efforts to control small arms. There is potentially a certain amount that New Zealand can do for the small arms problem in our region by way of practical assistance in such areas as training and technical advice. The problem of small arms flows is one of operational concern to the NZDF in the conflicts in many regions where it is or could potentially become involved.