The table below shows the changing ethnic composition of the older population, contrasting 1991 and 1996 figures with projections for the years 2001, 2006 and 2011.

Maori older population

The Maori population has a younger age structure than the non-Maori population with only 3 percent aged 65 or over, compared with 13 percent of non-Maori. While this relative youthfulness will persist, the Maori population will age at a faster rate, but at a later time, than the non-Maori population, largely because the fall in the number of births in the 1970s was more rapid for Maori. In March 1996, there were 14,200 Maori aged 65 and over. By 2011, the number of Maori in this age group is expected to have increased by 84 percent to reach 26,100 where Maori will comprise 5 percent of the population aged 65 years and over. By 2031, the expected number of older Maori will be 59,000, more than four times its current size, and they will account for 9 percent of the total Maori population.

Pacific Islands older population

The Pacific Islands population living in New Zealand will also age rapidly but remain much younger than the population as a whole. In March 1996, there were about 4,800 Pacific Islands people aged 65 and over, representing fewer than 3 percent of the Pacific Islands population. By 2011, the number of older Pacific Islands people will have doubled to 9,600, representing 2 percent of the total population aged 65 years and over. By 2031, the expected number of older Pacific Islands people will be 27,000, more than five times its current size, and they will account for about 8 percent of the population in those ethnic groups.

Asian older population

The Asian population in New Zealand is also relatively young. While 11 percent of all New Zealanders were aged 65 years and over in 1991, less than 3 percent of the New Zealand Asian population were in this category. This is not unexpected given that many of the Asian groups consist of recent immigrants to New Zealand and that New Zealand’s immigration policies mean that older people make up only a small percentage of Asian migrants.

Comment

Ethnic differences will become increasingly important as the number of older Maori increases. At the current time, a larger proportion of older Maori are in rental accommodation than are Pakeha; dependence on state-funded superannuation increases with age and is higher for Maori than Pakeha; and income differentials between Maori and Pakeha are perpetuated to the end of life, although there is some narrowing of ethnic differences with age.

The Pacific Islands population shares many of the same socio-economic characteristics as the Maori population. Further, Pacific Islands people are more likely to be in a higher income household because of multiple family living. Income support, health, housing, and social services policies will all require revision in light of the increasing importance of cultural diversity within the older age group.

Dependency ratios

The total dependency ratio compares the size of the working age population with the size of the combined populations of younger and older people. It makes the assumption that the non-working age population is dependent on the working age population for support. The ratio does not take into account the effects of employment opportunities or education and training on workforce participation, nor the extent to which a "dependent" person is actually dependent. While the ratio measures both older age and youth dependency, there is no assumption made on whether either of the two populations is more dependent on the working age population than the other.

As the age of eligibility for state-funded retirement income is increasing from 60 to 65 years of age, it is useful to consider two alternative scenarios based on March 1996 population data. If the working age population is defined as being between 16 and 59 years of age, this would indicate an aged dependency ratio of 26 older persons per 100 people of working age and a youth dependency ratio of 41 per 100. However, if the working age population is defined as aged between 16 and 64 years, a dependency ratio of 19 per 100 for older people and 39 per 100 for young people is indicated. This demonstrates the significant effect that the change in the accepted age of retirement, that is, the age of eligibility for New Zealand Superannuation, has on the total dependency ratio.

There are expected to be 21 older persons for every 100 aged 16 to 64 by the year 2011. Beyond then, the aged dependency ratio will increase rapidly to reach 36 per 100 in 2031. Meanwhile, the youth dependency ratio will have declined from current levels to 33 per 100 by 2011 and is expected to plateau at just over 30 children per 100 adults of working age in the period up to 2031.

The increase in the accepted age of retirement to 65 years will extend the pool of working age adults and reduce the number of older adults regarded as "dependent". Declining fertility rates suggest a lower youth dependency rate. At the same time, however, youth are likely to remain in training or education for longer than in the past and this will tend to produce partial offsetting effects, reducing the pool of working age adults and increasing the number of younger adults regarded as "dependent". As stated earlier, however, the dependency ratio concept does not compare the relative costs to the state of the two dependent populations, or take into account the extent of dependency on state benefits among adults of working age. In March 1996, about one in every six people aged 16-64 were receiving income-tested benefits.

Life expectancy

New Zealanders are, in general, living longer than ever before. The mortality experience for 1992-94 indicates that a new-born male could expect to live, on average, 73.4 years, and a female, 79.1 years. That is, women can expect to live 5.7 years longer than men While women generally have a greater life expectancy than men, the gap is less marked in older age groups. For example, life expectancy for New Zealand men and women at age 65 years is currently 15.0 years and 18.8 years respectively, a difference of 3.8 years in favour of women. By the time one reaches 85 years, however, life expectancy for men is 5.1 years, and for women, 6.4 years, a difference of only 1.3 years in favour of women. According to Statistics New Zealand, this is because “...the men who survive the ages of highest cancer and coronary-related mortality tend to continue to live for a similar length of time to women.”

Maori life expectancy is lower than that for European/Pakeha New Zealanders but is, nevertheless, improving. In 1950-52, a Maori baby girl had a life expectancy of 56 years, compared to the 72 years that a non-Maori baby girl could expect to live. A Maori baby girl born in 1990-92 could, however, expect to live 73 years, compared with 79 years for their non-Maori counterparts. Maori males have also experienced improved life expectancy, from 54 years in 1950-52 to 68 years in 1990-92. However, the difference in life expectancy between Maori men and Maori women has widened, because of fewer deaths among Maori women than Maori men.

Increased life expectancy will result in greater numbers of people reaching the age of 80 and over. As noted earlier, the most rapid increase in the older population will occur amongst the “old old”. The needs of this group will be quite different to those in younger cohorts and such differentials must be considered in social policy development.

Gender

Women make up the majority of the older population and their predominance increases with age. In March 1996, while women accounted for 56 percent of all those aged 65 and over, they made up 70 percent of those aged 85 and over. There are twice as many women as men in the population aged 80 and over.

This gender imbalance means that women are far more likely than men to live alone. The need for support services increases with age and older women are twice as likely to be in residential care as older men. In 1991, 40 percent of women aged 85 and over lived in non-private dwellings compared with only 23 percent of men of this age. At this time, only 8 percent of women aged 85 and over were married, compared with 44 percent of men.

Smaller family sizes, greater geographical distribution of families, higher labour force participation among women in late middle age and higher rates of marriage breakdown will increase the numbers of older people living alone without access to support from family members. Women will continue to make up the majority of people in this category among the very old. The high proportion of older women living alone has profound implications for social policy, particularly in the areas of security and care. While older people generally wish to remain as independent as possible in their own communities, the desire for independence must be balanced against the need for adequate support.

Marital status

At the 1991 Census, 77 percent of men and 53 percent of women in the 65 to 74 year age group were married. The proportion of older people who are widowed is significantly higher for women than for men. For example, 10 percent of men in the 65-74 year age group were widowed, as opposed to 36 percent of women. By age 85 years and over, 48 percent of men were widowed, compared to 81 percent of women. The difference can be attributed to the longer life expectancy of women, together with the tendency for men to be married to women younger than themselves.

A significant trend in the marital status of older people is the growth in the number of people who are either divorced or separated. The proportion is greatest amongst the “younger olds”, with 6 percent of those aged 65-74 years being separated or divorced in 1991, as compared to 2 percent aged 85 years and over. This compares with 3% and 1% in 1971. These proportions can be expected to grow as the generations of New Zealanders affected by higher rates of separation and divorce in recent decades enter the older age groups.

Employment

Since the age of eligibility for retirement income support began rising in 1992, the number of people in their early sixties who are either employed or actively seeking work has increased. Between 1971 and 1991, the labour force participation rates of people in their late fifties were trending downward for men and upward for women. During the same period, the proportion of men and women in the labour force beyond age 60 declined, particularly after the introduction of National Superannuation in 1977.


trending downward for men and upward for women.60 declined, particularly after the introduction of National Superannuation in 1977. Since the age of eligibility for retirement income support began rising in 1992, the number of people in their early sixties who are either employed or actively seeking work has increased.

In March 1996, the labour force participation rates of 60-64 year olds were 53.1 percent for men and 25 percent for women, up from 33 percent and 17 percent respectively, in March 1991. Over the age of 65 years, about 10 percent of men are still in the labour force, compared with around 3 percent of women.

Source: Household Labour Force Survey

The pattern is different for older Maori and Pacific Islands people. In 1991, when 10 percent of all men aged 65 and over were in the labour force, only 7 percent of Maori men and fewer than 5 percent of Pacific Islands men in this age group were employed or seeking work. In contrast, the participation rate of older Maori women, at 4 percent, was higher than average, while that of older Pacific Islands women was lower, at 1 percent.


The majority of employed older people in the 60-64 year age group work full-time (81 percent of employed men and 53 percent of employed women). However, beyond age 65, most employed people work part-time (53 percent).


Continued participation in the paid workforce is dependent on a number of factors including employment status and conditions, personal health, financial commitments and aspirations, caregiving responsibilities and self-esteem. Lower levels of continued participation in the paid workforce by both Maori and Pacific Islands people may be linked to employment conditions. For example, Maori men and women are more likely to be employed in manufacturing industries than non-Maori. As employment in the manufacturing sector has declined over the past 10 years, unemployment amongst Maori men in particular has increased. Maori may thus be forced out of the paid workforce at a younger age.


It is also important to note that the median incomes for both Maori men and women are lower than those of non-Maori. This may make continued participation in the paid workforce beyond age of qualification for New Zealand Superannuation less attractive from a financial standpoint. However, as the occupational distribution of employed Maori is changing, particularly with more Maori becoming self-employed, and therefore having greater control over their retirement age, it is likely that an increasing proportion of Maori may stay in the paid workforce for a longer period of time.


A further factor in the lower levels of participation in the paid workforce by Maori and Pacific Islands people could be linked to family responsibilities. Older Maori, and Pacific Islands women in particular, have an important role to play in providing care for children or other dependants. It is also important to note that older Pacific Islands people are more likely to live with other family members and have greater access to care and support and, in addition, share higher household incomes. These factors may act as both disincentives and barriers to continued workforce participation.


Future Directions


The increasing number of older people in New Zealand will present new challenges in the area of policy formation. The older population is an increasingly diverse group with different needs and expectations. The provision of healthcare services is one area which will be particularly exposed to the impact of a larger and diverse older population. The health needs of the 80 plus age group will be quite different to those in the 65-70 age group. Differences will also occur on the basis of gender, ethnicity, living situation and socio-economic profile.


Further, it cannot be assumed that the older generations of tomorrow will have the same needs and expectations as older people today. The values, health status and economic situation of older people may vary greatly not only within generations, but also between them. For example, recent changes to housing policy which have seen the removal of government incentives for low income earners and subsidised home loans may result in a future generation of older people who do not have equity in a residential property.


Planning for an older population needs to begin now. The Government has realised the importance of preparing for the impact of an ageing population and two recent government Task Forces have examined aspects of ageing in New Zealand. The Task Force on Private Provision for Retirement presented its final report to Parliament in December 1992. As a result of the findings and recommendations of the Task Force, the Accord on Retirement Income Policies was negotiated between the National, Labour and Alliance Parties and was later signed up to by the United New Zealand Party. The Accord aims to achieve consensus on retirement income policies so that people can plan with certainty for and during their retirement.


In May 1996, the Government established the Prime Ministerial Task Force on Positive Ageing. The Task Force has been charged with considering the implications of New Zealand’s ageing population and advising the Government on a strategy for ensuring greater co-operation between agencies in monitoring the needs of older people and promoting and supporting positive ageing. The Task Force will present its final report with recommendations to Government by December 1997.


Notwithstanding the work undertaken by the two Task Forces, research into the needs and expectations of older people has been lacking, with no single agency having responsibility for either research co-ordination or funding. Research into areas such as health, housing, transportation, employment, security, communications and recreation and leisure activities is needed to provide a sound basis for future policy development.


The Department of Social Welfare has taken a lead in preparing for the increase in the older population. The Director-General’s Performance Agreement with the Minister of Social Welfare requires the Department, in terms of Key Result Area (KRA) 3, “to develop and implement strategies across business units to ensure that Social Welfare services are prepared for the growth in the size of the older population, and that ageing is seen in a positive light by older people themselves and the wider community.” It is important that policy developments also occur in other agencies and that these are coordinated in a coherent way. The Task Force on Positive Ageing will advise Government on a strategy for ensuring a comprehensive policy response to meet the challenge of an ageing population in New Zealand. It is expected that the Senior Citizens Unit will have significant involvement in the work that arises from the recommendations from the Task Force.

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