Dr Ross Cullen, Lincoln University

1.

Examine some concepts of sustainable development.

2.

Introduce the concept of New Zealand's Ecological Footprint (how much land based resource does it take to sustain our current economy in perpetuity).

3.

Explore the current trends in production and consumption of some key items

This paper argues that the sustainable management of our natural and physical resources is not simply a function of population numbers, but is also a function of our per capita consumption, and of the technology and material inputs involved in production and consumption. In the post Rio quest for what constitutes sustainable development there has been increasing focus on the concepts of sustainable consumption and production. This is recognition that resource use per capita, and cummulative environmental impacts, have continued to increase as population growth has slowed in developed countries.

There is growing recognition that there are biophysical limits to economic growth and that the successful economies of the 21st century will increasingly separate growth in income and consumption from growth in material inputs used, or throughput of natural resources in the economy. Increasingly societies are seen as having two options:

1.

they can pursue qualitative economic development in which the quality of goods and services is improved through resource efficiency processes and social organisation but output in terms of physical volume does not increase;

2.

they can pursue selective quantitative economic growth which remains viable if, for example, certain sectors expand but their growth is offset by greater resource efficiency (leading to reduced inputs) and or contraction in other economic activities.

(Thompson and Waller-Hunter, 1997 )

The 'bottom line' is that there is no such thing as 'sustainable growth' in perpetuity as far as natural resources are concerned. If there is to be sustainable development, the scale of human enterprise must ultimately be limited. The scale of that limitation can be thought of in terms of an equation whereby the Impact of humanity on its life support systems is the product of Population size multiplied by per capita Affluence (consumption) and some measure of the impact of Technologies (and input combinations) employed to supply each unit of consumption, I = P x A x T (Ehrlich, 1994) This is a useful framework to keep in mind when considering New Zealand's progress towards more sustainable development. It links the elements of our complex ecological, social and economic systems.

Many of the elements in Ehrlich's I = P x A x T equation become apparent in a study my team and I have been doing on the environmental effects of tourism. The environmental effects it produces are a diverse range of biophysical, social and cultural elements. The impacts are not simply a product of the numbers of people (New Zealanders and overseas visitors) on holiday at any time, but the quantum of experiential goods and services they purchase from sectors such as transport, accomodation and transportation. The resource intensity, or amount, of resources embodied within these goods and services is also important when considering the overall environmental effects of tourism. This realisation emerged from the study, although it was not specifically a part of it. As people (New Zealanders and overseas visitors) move from daily life to being on holiday, their total resource demands per day will change, often quite radically. Many people become more mobile, go into a 'pampering ourselves' mode, and possibly eat and live more luxuriously. Others, of course, choose greater simplicity, eg some forms of eco-tourism, wilderness tramping, or camping at a beach! The key point is that consumption per person is as important a consideration as is total numbers, whether it be in the context of a major New Zealand industry sector, the tourism sector, a city or the whole nation.

By the standards of most developed nations, Aotearoa New Zealand is a sparsely populated land, but one which has been dramatically modified by humanity over less than 1000 years (Ministry for the Environment, 1997). The impacts of even a small population on forest areas, on species numbers, on the landscape have been devistating and often irreversible.

The aggregate Ecological Footprint has been calculated for New Zealand using input-output methodology to ensure that as many as possible of the direct and indirect demands for resources are tracked (Bicknell et al, forthcoming). Using 1991 Input-Output tables and data the New Zealand EF has been calculated as 3.49 hectares per person. Table 1 shows the breakdown of New Zealand's EF into various land use categories. Agricultural and forest land comprise almost 50 percent of the footprint. Degraded land includes the land under buildings and roads, while energy land represents the amount of land required to support energy consumption in a sustainable manner. As the name implies imported land represents the amount of ecologically productive land embodied in goods and services that are imported to New Zealand from abroad.

The EF for New Zealand can be compared to the EF's calculated for other countries (Table 2). Although our per capita EF is typical for OECD countries, it is much larger than the per capita EF for many developing countries. It is important to keep in mind, however, that the per capita EF provides only a partial answer to the question of whether a nation's economy is sustainable. Population levels, and the area of ecologically productive land available to the nation must also be considered to determine if its aggregate EF is sustainable. Calculation reveals that in aggregate New Zealand's EF is 11 893 920 hectares. This total figure represents 64 percent of the total ecologically productive land in New Zealand.

What are our resource use trends in New Zealand? Are we increasing the demands for resources as our population increases and our per capita incomes increase? What effects will those changes have on the size of New Zealand's Ecological Footprint? The following paragraphs point to some trends in resource use and environmental impact. They are examples, but they may be representative of the whole picture.

Housing

A very basic need is shelter. The number of dwellings required to house a nation is very much a function of social organisation as well as absolute population numbers. In New Zealand household structures have been changing in recent years - in particular, there has been an increase in one person households: from 14 percent of the total in 1976 to 20 percent in 1996. Between 1986 and 1991 the total number of dwellings in New Zealand rose by 8.6 percent, while the population rose 3.9 percent. Projecting such trends out from 1991 to 2016 indicates that dwelling numbers will rise by at least 28.5 percent, while population is projected to rise 22 percent (Statistics New Zealand, 1997).

So in terms of shelter, New Zealanders are requiring more per capita, with consequential impacts on city densities and matters such as amenity values and waste generation. It is a trend that is unlikely to be reversed in the next few decades, and must be recognised as a component of New Zealand's resource demand picture and have its effects managed accordingly (Figure 1). Increases in population numbers will further increase the demand for shelter, and together with the increase in per capita demand, will increase the area of land no longer available for biological production, conservation or recreation purposes. The end result will be an increase in the size of New Zealand's Ecological Footprint.

Source: Statistics New Zealand (1995)

Cars

Car-based mobility is a key component of New Zealand lifestyles in low density cities and rural landscapes. It accounts for 84 percent of the kilometres driven on New Zealand's roads. In urban areas, cars and all of the infrastructure they require, both on and off the road, have major environmental impacts. Delivering mobility, while maintaining environmental qualities, is one of the biggest challenges for New Zealand. As we are all well aware, car numbers and use have risen markedly in the last decade. In the years 1993 to 1996 inclusive, we have added 844,000 new and used cars to our roads - bringing the national total to 1.636 million, or one car per 2.25 people. In 1996 the highest number ever were registered: 289,014. The number of multiple car households is also increasing rapidly - with increases of 2, 3 and 4-car families by over 20 percent between 1986-1991.

Source: Ministry for the Environment (1997)

New and imported used car purchases are a function of relative prices and economic growth. Because lower relative prices for vehicles and continued economic growth are likely to continue, total vehicle numbers can be expected to increase. Increasing levels of car ownership and use can only be accommodated by putting considerable pressure on urban air qualities and roading infrastructure, and by increasing roading infrastructures - as Auckland and Wellington residents are acutely aware.

The effect of these trends on New Zealand's Ecological Footprint is again to increase its size, through the increased demand for liquid fuels, and for materials for car components, and through the increases in area of land degraded through use for roadways.

These trends are not inevitable. The current government land transport pricing study (roading reforms) seeks to address some of the supply and demand issues, but it is generally weak in terms of addressing the environmental effects of road transport. New Zealand will need to take some imaginative steps on transport pricing, public transport systems, and planning for communities so vehicles are less necessary. This may help reduce the effects of continued population growth, income per capita growth, car ownership and use growth, and prevent increase in the size of New Zealand's Ecological Footprint.

Waste generation and disposal

New Zealanders' waste generation per capita over the last 15 years has increased sharply and currently appears to be higher than the OECD average of approximately 500 kg/person/annum. The only reliable New Zealand trend data come from the Auckland region where total landfill waste, including industrial waste, has been monitored since 1983 (Figure 3). By 1995, waste had nearly doubled from 419,000 tonnes per annum to 821,000 tonnes per annum - a per capita increase of over 60 percent (Ministry for the Environment, 1997). The OECD per capita increase over a similar period (1980-1992) was only 20 percent.

Source: Ministry for the Environment (1997)

This increase in waste generation was directly correlated with economic growth during that period. The faster the economic growth, the faster the growth in waste generation. There was no evidence that increased economic growth was yielding any efficiencies in resource use, with the exception of energy since 1991. As our economy has become more open to economic competition, significant changes in the packaging of goods, particularly of beverages, has occurred. For example, of the 376 million litres of beer produced annually in the early 1980s, 48 percent was sold in reusable bottles and the rest on tap. By 1993, the tap proportion had not changed but the refillable bottle proportion had fallen to 9 percent of all beer sold. A similar change has taken place with milk. In 1985 milk was sold in returnable bottles throughout New Zealand. From 1986 milk in cardboard and plastic containers became freely available in supermarkets. By 1993, 85 percent of milk was sold in disposable containers. While there were undoubtedly direct economic gains for suppliers (lower production costs) and for consumers (convenience), there were clearly increased disposal costs, energy costs and ultimately environmental costs (Ministry for the Environment, 1997). As Figure 4 demonstrates, the energy input per 350 ml drink container is substantially reduced by reusing and recycling.

Recycling is widely espoused within New Zealand, but the markets for recycled materials remain fickle and there appears to be relatively little effort by many industries and households to reduce waste generation in the first place, despite the Ministry for the Environment's Cleaner Production Programme and Packaging Accord initiatives.

Source: Demanuele (1994), in Ministry for the Environment (1997)

Ultimately greater efficiency in resource use must be the focus, but it is also encouraging that recycling is at present strongly community driven. It reflects the concern of New Zealand citizens about the waste problem. Whether this concern can be translated into a reduction in waste generation, and hence disposal needs, will necessitate the full cost of waste disposal and environmental protection being reflected in the price of goods - at present this rarely occurs in New Zealand - hence we have high waste levels. The inverse relationship between landfill charges and the level of landfill waste (Figure 5) suggests that landfill pricing policies may be used to discourage dumping, and encourage practices such as reducing the quantity of waste, and reusing or recycling whenever possible.

Continued population and economic growth, allied with changes in packaging systems, have lead to significant increases in volumes of material used in the economy, and in volumes of material to be disposed of following consumption. These increases in material usage, and in disposal, further increase the size of New Zealand's Ecological Footprint. New policies, and new attitudes are needed to reverse our trends on material usage and disposal levels, and help reduce growth of the Ecological Footprint.

Source: Ministry for the Environment (1997)