Introduction & Session Notes. Opening Address. Plenary 1, 2, 3, 4. Panel Discussion 1A, 1B, 1C. Review & Preview. Plenary 5. Panel Discussion 2A. Session Notes, Population Change & Social Services. Panel Discussion 2B, 2C, 2D. Plenary 6. Panel Discussion 3A, 3B, 3C. Closing Address.
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PANEL DISCUSSION 2B - POPULATION CHANGE & URBAN EXPANSION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
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Department of Geography, University of Waikato
A Preliminary Analysis of the 1996 Census Data
DENISE CHURCH,
SESSION NOTES,
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Table 4.3: Age composition of internal and overseas migrant flows into selected Main Urban Areas, 1991-1996
(Percentages)a) Internal immigrant flows
Age Group Main Urban Area 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65+ Auckland 14.7 28.7 24.6 14.5 12.1 5.4 Hamilton 16.6 35.0 18.5 13.3 11.1 5.4 Tauranga 16.7 15.9 18.1 15.3 20.8 13.3 Palmerston North 13.1 45.6 18.2 11.0 8.6 3.4 Napier/Hastings 20.1 19.9 22.1 15.8 14.9 7.2 Wellington 13.4 32.4 27.7 14.2 9.4 3.0 Nelson 17.7 21.2 21.5 16.5 15.9 7.3 Christchurch 13.8 33.5 20.7 13.9 12.6 5.5 Dunedin 10.6 53.2 14.4 10.1 7.9 3.9 All MUA 18.2 21.9 19.8 15.7 17.2 7.2 a) Overseas Immigrant flows
Age Group Main Urban Area 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65+ Auckland 17.5 18.2 29.2 19.4 12.5 3.1 Hamilton 17.3 20.9 32.4 17.4 9.5 2.5 Tauranga 15.4 13.2 34.7 19.3 13.5 3.9 Palmerston North 14.0 26.3 34.1 15.8 7.9 1.9 Napier/Hastings 14.4 14.8 37.9 18.6 11.0 3.3 Wellington 14.2 15.4 37.9 18.5 11.3 2.7 Nelson 14.9 17.9 33.3 19.9 10.9 3.2 Christchurch 14.1 22.1 33.5 17.3 10.4 2.6 Dunedin 11.1 33.4 31.6 14.4 7.6 1.9 All MUA 16.0 17.9 32.3 18.8 12.0 3.0 Source: As for Table 2.1
Tauranga, Nelson and Napier/Hastings had higher concentrations of internal immigrants in the older age groups. This was especially the case for Tauranga where 34 percent of all immigrants from other parts of New Zealand were aged above 45 years compared with 17 percent for Auckland and Christchurch, and 12 percent for Wellington and Dunedin. Indeed, 13 percent of Tauranga's immigrants were aged over 65 years, almost double the percentage for Nelson, the other city often cited as a place for " retirement migration" (Table 4.3).
Tauranga also had larger shares of people aged over 65 years (4 percent) and aged between 45 and 64 years (13 percent) in its overseas immigrant population than the other MUA. However, all MUA except Dunedin had their heaviest concentration of overseas immigrants in the 25-34 age group ranging from 29 percent for Auckland to 38 percent for Wellington and Napier/Hastings.
Dunedin's largest share (33 percent) was in the age group 15-24 years; a further reflection of the importance of the university for this city's immigration flows. Larger shares of immigrant children (aged 5-14 years) were found in Auckland and Hamilton (17 percent each) than in the other MUA (11-15 percent) (Table 4.3).
4.2.3 The impact of migration on resident urban populations
Migration, both internal and international, clearly has some quite variable impacts on the age structures of city populations. While there are some similarities in the structures of the non-immigrant populations across New Zealand's settlement hierarchy (especially a bulge in the older labour force ages, 45-64 years), there are also some significant differences.
The main urban areas, in aggregate, have a much higher share of their population in the 15-34 year age groups (31 percent) than the smaller cities and towns and rural areas (21 to 23 percent) (Table 4.4). The minor urban areas and rural areas have larger shares of their non-immigrant populations aged 5-14 years (17-20 percent) than the larger cities. There is also a higher percentage of older people in the smaller towns and cities (20 percent) than in the main urban areas (14 percent) and rural areas (11 percent) (Table 4.4).
Generalising about the contributions which internal and overseas immigrants make to the age structures of specific urban and rural places is complicated both by variability in the age compositions of immigrant populations as well as by variability in the non-immigrant resident populations. The argument that migration is "rejuvenating" an ageing population clearly cannot be sustained in a city like Tauranga where 34 percent of the internal immigrants and 17 percent of the overseas immigrants were aged 45 years or more. These older immigrants were simply adding to an already "older" population (48 percent of Tauranga's non-immigrant residents were aged 45 years and over in 1996).
In the case of Dunedin, the situation would be rather different, if the immigrants actually remained in residence in the city. In this city, two thirds of both the internal immigrants and the overseas immigrants are aged between 15 and 34 years. In the non-immigrant resident population aged 5 years and over, only 28 percent were in this age range in 1996. However, as has already been noted, a significant proportion of these immigrants are students who will leave the city on completion of their training. Dunedin's population is rejuvenated every year by an influx of students, but it is not a rejuvenation which has a lasting impact on the city's population structure.
Table 4.4: Age composition of the resident populations, 1996 (Percentages)
Age Group Main Urban Area 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65+ Settlement hierarchy Main Urban Areas 15.8 15.6 15.5 16.1 23.0 14.1 Secondary Urban Areas 16.4 12.2 11.8 15.2 24.4 20.0 Minor Urban Areas 17.4 11.8 11.2 14.6 24.5 20.5 Rural Centres 17.6 11.2 10.5 16.0 26.8 17.9 Rural Areas 19.9 11.1 10.4 19.0 28.9 10.8 Total 16.4 14.6 14.3 16.2 23.8 14.8 Selected MUA Auckland 16.1 15.3 15.8 16.3 23.4 13.1 Hamilton 17.0 15.4 13.9 16.2 23.6 13.9 Tauranga 15.2 11.2 10.8 14.8 25.2 22.8 Palmerston North 15.8 15.2 14.3 15.8 23.8 15.2 Napier/Hastings 16.9 13.6 12.0 15.1 25.1 17.2 Wellington 15.8 15.0 16.3 17.1 24.1 11.8 Nelson 14.9 11.9 12.3 15.9 25.7 19.4 Christchurch 13.9 14.4 14.2 16.0 24.2 17.2 Dunedin 14.3 14.8 13.6 16.0 23.8 17.5 Source: As for Table 2.1.
A final point which should be made about the impact of immigration on urban and rural age structures is that there are also differences due to ethnicity. This is not the place for a review of the age compositions for different ethnic sub-groups within the internal and overseas immigrant population.
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- A CONCLUDING COMMENT
- Unpacking the interlocking processes which determine population growth in particular cities, towns and rural areas seems deceptively easy at first glance. The basic components of growth are straight-forward: natural increase and net migration. However, the processes producing different levels of natural increase, or different net migration gains or losses are not so easy to unravel. A complex mix of structural factors (especially age and ethnic composition) invariably applies, as do increasingly divergent economic and social circumstances in urban and rural places.
In New Zealand there has been a tendency to generalise rather too widely about the "impacts of migration on population growth". Often the generalisations are made with reference to the national population, or it is assumed that most of the impacts of migration are felt in one or two major cities. In fact, as this paper has shown, the story is much more complicated and richly diverse. Migration, both internal and international, is contributing to the differentiation of places in New Zealand, especially in terms of the ethnic compositions and age structures of their populations.
This diversity in populations is simply one manifestation of what Featherstone (1991, 147) argues is a "globalisation of diversity" which is associated with the economic and social transformations within advanced capitalist societies over the past 25 years. As Le Heron and Pawson (1996, 349) have demonstrated clearly in their assessment of New Zealand's geography in the 1990s, New Zealand is a place of multiple, jostling identities: bicultural, multi-ethnic, Maori, Pacific, Asian, international. These identities are not uniformly felt or articulated in all places; they have different meanings in different places.
Demographic diversity thus contributes to distinctive mixtures of economic and social relations in different parts of New Zealand. Policies directed at managing social change in urban areas must recognise that the expression of diversity is particular to each place. In this context it is hardly surprising that there is considerable debate at regional and local levels about appropriate policy initiatives to promote social cohesion, diminish social polarisation, and provide the social capital required to ensure economic well-being of all sections of the community.
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