Introduction & Session Notes. Opening Address. Plenary 1, 2, 3, 4. Panel Discussion 1A, 1B, 1C. Review & Preview. Plenary 5. Panel Discussion 2A. Session Notes, Population Change & Social Services. Panel Discussion 2B, 2C, 2D. Plenary 6. Panel Discussion 3A, 3B, 3C. Closing Address. |
PANEL DISCUSSION 1A - POPULATION CHANGE AND THE LABOUR MARKET |
Department of Economics, University of Canterbury
ROGER KERR, |
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"HISTORY MATTERS
-
It matters not just because we can learn from the past, but because the present and the future are connected to the past by the continuity of a society's institutions. Today's and tomorrow's choices are shaped by the past …"
North DC (1990)
Sectors with a high incidence of net exports to emerging economies (EEs), 1993 Net exports to EEs as a percent of trade Turnovera
Chemical products Drugs and medicines Machinary and equipment Motor Vehicles Aircraft Iron and Steel Australia 10 48 13 -12 -.02 25.7 Canada
31 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 1.2 0.3 European Union Austria 0.5 4.7 4.2 0.7 -0.2 1.9 Belgium 2.3 2.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 3.8 Denmark 1.0 0.9 6.1 -0.2 8.7 -0.2 Finland 1.6 0.5 13.9 1.1 0.2 4.5 France 2.5 2.1 4.2 2.0 9.0 3.0 Germany 3.5 2.3 9.7 3.7 0.5 5.0 Italy 1.2 3.2 12.9 1.3 -0.4 6.4 Netherlands 1.5 2.8 3.6 0.1 13.0 2.5 Portugal -1.0 0.7 -1.6 -0.9 8.8 2.2 Spain 0.9 2.8 2.9 0.0 -2.2 10.2 Swedan 1.6 1.8 5.7 5.2 2.3 5.1 United Kingdom 1.9 3.0 5.2 1.2 2.8 5.6 EU unweighted average Japan 26.3 3.9 39.8 13.8 0.7 39.0 New Zealand -3.7 0.0 -1.5 -1.1 0.6 4.6 Norway 0.4 1.1 2.4 0.0 9.3 2.7 United States 8.8 3.8 7.1 1.2 24.1 -7.7 OECD unweighted average 3.0 2.2 6.6 1.5 4.3 6.4 - a)
- For each sector the figures refer to exports to EEs minus imports from EEs expressed as a ratio of trade turnover (calculated as total exports of the sector plus total imports of the sector)
Sectors with a high incidence of net imports from emerging economies (EEs), 1993 Net imports from EEs as a per cent of trade Turnoverb
Textiles, apparel, footwear and leather Wood products Rubber and plastics Computer equipment Other transport equipment Other Manufacturingc Australia
27.5
24.3
31.8
23.1
19.3
26.4
Canada
34.8
0.6
10.8
12.4
8.7
22.6
European Union
Austria
8.1
0.8
3.2
12.4
5.0
6.7
Belgium
3.9
4.7
3.4
2.3
0.6
-7.5
Denmark
13.9
2.0
5.4
5.4
8.3
15.0
Finland
15.3
0.5
7.3
13.8
13.4
13.8
France
9.1
6.2
6.4
9.0
6.9
14.1
Germany
14.9
5.6
6.5
13.7
7.5
14.6
Italy
1.1
1.8
4.7
5.9
3.0
1.8
Netherlands
13.4
13.9
6.7
7.7
8.0
19.0
Portugal
2.3
1.1
5.8
7.5
3.5
10.9
Spain
10.7
4.1
6.1
6.7
9.3
19.7
Sweden
23.6
1.4
5.5
8.1
8.9
17.3
United Kingdom
21.4
15.3
12.8
9.0
10.6
1.9
EU unweighted average
11.5
4.8
6.2
8.5
7.1
10.6
Japan
36.8
42.0
5.7
-5.1
-30.2
14.3
New Zealand
7.2
-1.9
18.2
22.6
36.1
27.3
Norway
23.1
3.3
8.7
11.2
17.0
20.2
United States
46.1
16.2
39.3
22.8
16.8
33.5
OECD unweighted average
17.4
7.9
10.5
10.5
8.5
15.1
THREE MAIN POINTS
- Immigration and trade have additive effects on the income distribution
- Policy responses are country-specific
- There is no unique correspondence between 'years of schooling' and 'skills' needed for the 21st century.
POLICY QUESTIONS
- What are the skills that matter?
- What is the optimal pattern of immigration?
- "What private educational investments and what public investments in immobile knowledge or infrastructure assets are most appropriate for the 21st century …" (Learners E E (1996)
THANKS
Dream when the day is thru,
Dream and they might come true,
Things never are as bad as they seem,
So dream, dream, dream …- Johnny Mercer From
"Dream" popular song of the 1940'sREFERENCES
- 1.
- Leamer E E, 1996, U.S. Wages, Technolocal Change and "Globalisation"
- 2.
- North D C, 1990. Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance
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