The Population Conference

Introduction & Session Notes.
Opening Address.
Plenary 1, 2, 3, 4.
Panel Discussion 1A, 1B, 1C.
Review & Preview.
Plenary 5.
Panel Discussion 2A.
Session Notes, Population Change & Social Services.
Panel Discussion 2B, 2C, 2D.
Plenary 6.
Panel Discussion 3A, 3B, 3C.
Closing Address.
PLENARY 3 - POPULATION CHANGE AND THE ROLE OF IMMIGRATION

PROFESSOR IAN POOL,
Population Studies Centre, University of Waikato
AND
PROFESSOR RICHARD BEDFORD,
Department of Geography, University of Waikato
1 - From Growth-Driven to Composition-driven Demographic Change
2 - Population Dynamics
3 - Population Structure
4 - Population Policy: Issues
5 - References
SESSION NOTES,
Population Change anf the Role of Iimmigration

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The following additional briefing papers were tabled at the Conference, but are not available electronically. Copies may be obtained on request directly from the Population Studies Centre, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, HAMILTON.
Number 1 "Recent Trends in Reproduction and Family Structures" (Janet Dickson, Deborah Ball, Jeff Edmeades, Sarah Hanson, Ian Pool)
Number 2 "Income Trends Among Individuals and Families, 1976 and 1996" (Barry Martin)
Number 3 "The Changing Structure of New Zealand's Labour Force, 1976-1996" (Jeff Honey, James Lindop)
Number 4 "Inter-Regional Migration in New Zealand, 1986-1996: A Preliminary Analysis" (Joanne Goodwin, Richard Bedford.)
Number 5 "International Migration and the Labour Force Age Groups, 1991-1996" (Richard Bedford, Jacqueline Lidgard)
Number 6 "Migration and Urban Population Change: A Preliminary Analysis of the 1996 Census Data" (Richard Bedford, Joanne Goodwin)
Number 7 "Migrants in the Workforce: A Preliminary Comparison of the Experiences of Chinese and Korean Recent Immigrants in 1991 and 1996" (Elsie Ho, Joanne Goodwin, Richard Bedford, Bridget Spragg)

SESSION NOTES, POPULATION CHANGE AND THE ROLE OF IMMIGRATION

Professor Ian Pool, Population Studies Centre, University of Waikato and Professor Richard Bedford, Department of Geography, University of Waikato

This conference comes at a critical time - a crossroads. We have historically been driven by population growth (fertility and migration) but we are now entering a period where population composition is the key issue.

Compositional changes are age, ethnicity, labour force, family and geographical compositional changes.

Population is central to: public policy, family life, the market and the environment.

We must avoid simplistic solutions, objectives and panaceas.

Both authors are in favour of migration - see it as very important for society.

Migration includes reception, settlement and accommodation into New Zealand.

We can make predictions on numerical ageing, however we cannot forecast fertility and migration precisely.

As a country we are data poor and urgently need good databases for long term population policies.

We have had rapid population growth since 1870, however, that era is past, population growth now and in the future is slow.

Immigration is not as significant as many believe, the main contribution has always been natural increase.

Migration impacts on particular ages, localities and occupations, this has made it a high profile issue.

Since 1945 the Maori population has gone through a rapid decline in mortality and fertility and a rapid increase in urbanisation, and more recently, trans-Tasman migration. The life expectancy rate of Maori and Pakeha has converged over time.

Age composition is a main momentum for growth and has major implications on the workforce (for example, middle ageing, ageing and the effects of baby blips).

Other compositional changes include changes in the working population, family structural changes, shifts from biculturalism to pluriculturalism, urbanisation and labour force changes.
Migration is not the answer to an ageing population, nor is a return to high fertility.

Need to attend to the needs of Maori in the 25-44 age group as they will be the kaumatua in 2020 and were affected by restructuring in the 1980s.

All major developed countries face some major population issues. These include stationality (births are equal to deaths), population ageing, complex patterns of internal and external migration, shifts in the family structure, and changes to the labour force.

A passive policy response is required, especially a review of human and social capital issues.

Urgent policy issues that need to be addressed include:

Effects of the baby blip on tertiary education and the labour market around 2010;

Giving support to families;

Embedding migration policy in broader population policy (migration is not a panacea for our economic problems or an antidote to ageing);

Looking after migrants better - reception, not just recruitment;

A long term view in policy - one of the reasons immigration has fluctuated so much is because policy has changed every few years; and

Long term migration and fertility data for longitudinal studies.

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