Archive - these pages are part of the continuing record of Executive Government - for the current Administration, see www.beehive.govt.nz
    Main Contents

    Introduction & Session Notes.
    Opening Address.
    Plenary 1, 2, 3, 4.
    Panel Discussion 1A, 1B, 1C.
    Review & Preview.
    Plenary 5.
    Panel Discussion 2A.
    Session Notes, Population Change & Social Services.
    Panel Discussion 2B, 2C, 2D.
    Plenary 6.
    Panel Discussion 3A, 3B, 3C.
    Closing Address.
    The Population Conference - People * Communities * Growth

    PLENARY 1 - NEW  ZEALAND'S CURRENT AND FUTURE POPULATION DYNAMICS

    Sections

    LEN COOK,
    Government Statistician, Statistics New Zealand

    Introduction
    Section I.
    The Global Context
    Section II.
    New Zealand Demographic Situation a Century Ago
    Section III.
    New Zealand Population Trends During the 20th Century
    Section IV.
    Changes in Population Composition
    Section V.
    Future Demographic Outlook
    Section VI.
    Demographic Trends and Changing Perceptions of Identity

    SESSION NOTES,
    New Zealand's Current and Future Population Dynamics

    A 'family' for census purposes is defined as a husband and wife (in a legal or de facto marriage), with or without children of any age living in the same dwelling - or a sole parent, of any marital status, living with children of any age. The overall number of families with children continues to rise, with 19,000 extra families counted in 1996 - a rise of 3 percent since 1991. During the same period, however, the number of families without any children at home increased by 48,000 or 15 percent. As a consequence, the proportion of families containing children has declined again (Table 9). Thirty-seven percent of families in 1996 consisted of a couple without children in the home. The rapid rise of such families since the early 1970s reflects a combination of trends already referred to - including declining marriage and fertility rates, a rise in de facto unions (which have a greater likelihood of being childless), an ageing population, and a preference for smaller families.

    IV.2.3  More Two-Parent Families, While One-Parent Families Slow Down

    For the first time in four censuses, the 1996 Census saw a modest increase in two-parent family numbers - amounting to 2,800 families or 0.6 percent. This increase can be attributed in part to the increased migration of Asian families to New Zealand in the five years prior to 1996 - the majority of whom were two-parent families. Despite their slight increase in numbers, the two-parent families' share of total families continues to decline (Table 9). Two decades ago, 62 percent of families consisted of a couple-plus-children. At the last census in 1991, the proportion fell below half for the first time (48 percent), and by the latest census it had dropped to 45 percent.

    In contrast, the one-parent family has risen to 18 percent of all families, compared with 17 percent in 1991 and 14 percent in 1986. There were 16,500 more one-parent families in 1996 than 1991, a growth rate of 11 percent. Though still much faster than two-parent family growth, this is only about a third of the growth experienced at any time in the past two decades, where gains of around 30 percent between censuses were the norm. Nevertheless, New Zealand's sole-parenting rate - at one in every four families with children - probably remains higher than those of most other western countries. IV.2.4 Dependent-Child Families

    Most of the focus on families centres round those which contain dependent children. The 1996 Census defined a 'dependent' child as one who is under 18 years old and not in full-time employment (that is, still at school or in tertiary training; unemployed, or working less than 30 hours per week). According to the 1996 Census, there are now 222,000 dependent children living with only one parent. While considerably less than the 714,000 children living in two-parent families, sole-parent children represent one in every four dependent children (Table 10).

    The proportion of Maori and Pacific Island dependent children who live with one parent is much higher than one in four. Thirty-nine percent of Maori children belonged to sole-parent families in 1996, versus 28 percent in 1986. The number of Pacific Island children in the same family type rose from 21 percent to 31 percent during the same 10 years. This compares with 20 percent of European children living with one parent in 1996, up from 14 percent a decade earlier.

    Table 10: Dependent Children by Family Type and Ethnicity of Child, 1996 Census

    Family Type Ethnicity of Child (1)
      Maori Pacific Island European Total
      Percent
    One parent family 39.4 31.3 20.3 23.7
    Two parent family 60.6 68.7 79.7 76.3
    All dependant children 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

    Family Type Ethnicity of Child (1) Maori Pacific Island European Total Percent One parent family 39.4 31.3 20.3 23.7 Two parent family 60.6 68.7 79.7 76.3 All dependant children 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

    (1) Where more than one ethnic group was reported for a child, they have been counted under each applicable ethnic category.

    IV.3  Overseas Born Population

    According to the 1996 Census, there were 605,061 overseas-born people living in New Zealand. This was an increase of 77,724, or 14.7 percent, over the 1991 total. The overseas-born persons now constitute one in six of all New Zealand's residents, up from the one in seven in 1986. Of those born overseas, more than a third had lived in New Zealand for 20 years or more. However, there were substantial differences by birthplace, a reflection of the timing and sources of past migration flows. Almost three in every four New Zealanders born in the United Kingdom or Ireland, and over half of those born in Europe, had lived here for 20 years or more. Conversely, more than half of the Asian and South African immigrants had been in New Zealand for less than five years.

    As there is no question on citizenship or residency in the census questionnaire, new immigrants cannot be directly identified in the Census. For analysis purposes therefore, a new immigrant has been defined as any usual resident who was born overseas and was living overseas (or not born) at the 1991 Census (this measure may overstate the number of new immigrants).This definition results in a total of 164,500 new immigrants recorded at the 1996 Census, or more than one quarter of the overseas-born population living in New Zealand. This is an increase of 50,700, or almost 45 percent over the 1991 total of 113,800, and more than twice the number recorded ten years earlier at the 1986 Census (80,100).

    IV.3.1  Where Immigrants Come From

    As a result of changes in immigration policy there have been significant changes in the birthplace distribution of new immigrants over the last ten years (Figure 22). Over that time Asia replaced the United Kingdom and Ireland as the largest source of new immigrants. Other traditional source countries - such as the Pacific and Australia - also became less important over this period. In 1986, the three main source areas for new immigrants were: the United Kingdom and Ireland (30.4 percent), the Pacific (19.4 percent) and Australia (15.1 percent). By 1996, the top three source areas were Asia (40.8 percent), the United Kingdom and Ireland (17.0 percent) and the Pacific (10.1 percent).

    Figure 22: Birthplace of New Immigrants, 1986 and 1996

    Figure 22: Birthplace of New Immigrants, 1986 and 1996

    As a result of these changes, between 1986 and 1996 almost two-thirds of the overall growth in the new immigrant population resulted from the increase in Asian-born new immigrants. Compared with 1986, there were over five times the number of new immigrants from Asia in 1996.

    The age structure of new immigrants is younger than that of other New Zealand residents. In 1996, more than 40 percent of new immigrants were aged 25-44 years, a further 25 percent were children under the age of 15, and around 20 percent were aged 15-24 years (Statistics New Zealand, 1997). In contrast, the remaining New Zealand population recorded lower proportions in all these age groups, particularly 25-44 years, with less than 33 percent in this age group. Consequently the migrant population was under-represented in the older age groups, with around 15 percent of new immigrants aged 45 years and over, compared with around 33 percent of other New Zealanders. There are also differences in age structure between new immigrant groups. More than half of those who specified Australia as their birthplace were children, compared with around one-fifth of those born in the United Kingdom and Ireland, Europe and Asia. Recent immigrants born in the Pacific and Asian regions were more likely than other new immigrant groups to be aged 15-24 years, perhaps reflecting a move here to obtain higher education or employment (Statistics New Zealand, 1997).

    IV.3.2  Language

    Many new immigrants come from non-English speaking countries. Of the 152,000 new immigrants who stated that they could hold a conversation about everyday things, 16.5 percent could not do so in English. This proportion was higher for some migrant groups: 29.7 percent of Asian-born new immigrants did not speak English, compared with 23.9 percent of those from the Pacific; 7.5 percent of European-born migrants and less than one percent of those from South Africa. However, census results indicate that most new immigrant groups quickly acquire knowledge of the English language. Of all those people born overseas who indicated that they could hold a conversation about everyday things, less than five percent of those who had lived in New Zealand for five years or more did not select English (Statistics New Zealand, 1997).

    IV.3.3  Where Migrants Settle

    The reason for migration and the location of already established ethnic communities will affect where new immigrants choose to settle. These factors often contribute to the concentrated settlement patterns found for some new migrant groups. The first point of contact for many new immigrants is Auckland, the major gateway to New Zealand. More than half of all new immigrants were living in the Auckland Region at the time of the 1996 Census, a pattern of settlement that is nothing new.

    Table 11: Selected Location by Birthplace and Migrant Status, 1996 Census

    Area Overseas-born New Zealand-born
    New
    migrant
    Established
    migrant
    Recently
    returned
    Other
    residents
      Percent
    North Island 83.0 82.6 75.4 73.1
    South Island 17.0 17.4 24.6 26.9
    Region
       Auckland 55.3 44.7 33.4 25.1
       Wellington 10.3 14.6 12.5 11.0
       Canterbury 10.6 10.0 13.7 13.7
    Main Urban Area 87.3 80.8 75.5 65.3
    Secondary Urban Area 2.9 5.3 5.4 8.1
    Minor Urban Area 3.9 5.5 7.2 9.5
    Rural 5.5 8.4 11.8 16.1

    Source: Statistics New Zealand, Census of Population and Dwellings, 1996

    Only around one in eight new immigrants were living outside a main urban area in 1996, compared with almost one in five established migrants, one in four recently-returned New Zealand-born residents and one-third of the remaining New Zealand-born population (Table 11). New immigrants in 1996 were more concentrated in main urban areas than their counterparts were ten years earlier in 1986. Whereas in 1986, 82.5 percent of new immigrants lived within the main urban areas, in 1996 87.8 percent did so. Over the last ten years the share of new immigrants attracted to the Auckland Urban Area has risen from 41.1 percent in 1986 to 53.8 percent in 1996. Of those new immigrants living in the Auckland Main Urban Area in 1996, the Central Auckland Zone was the most popular destination, with more than two-fifths located there. While a further quarter were living in the Southern Auckland Zone, the proportion for Pacific Island-born new immigrants, at 42.8 percent, was significantly higher than for most other groups. Northern Auckland Zone was home to around one-fifth of new immigrants in the Urban Area, but just 4.4 percent of Pacific Island-born new immigrants were living there (statistics New Zealand, 1997).

    The most urbanised of the new immigrants were the Asian and Pacific Island-born with more than 98 percent living in urban areas (including secondary and minor urban areas). For the Australian, European and North American-born migrants, the corresponding figure was less than 90 percent. A comparison of the overseas-born population by birthplace indicates differences in the level of dispersion which occurs after initial settlement. In 1996, 64.5 percent of Asian-born new immigrants lived in the Auckland Urban Area. Earlier arrivals were more dispersed, with only 52.7 percent of the Asian-born population who had lived here at the 1991 Census living in the Auckland Urban Area in 1996. Similar dispersion of Pacific Island-born people has not occurred. While 68.6 percent of Pacific Island new immigrants were living in the Auckland Region in 1996, the figure for established migrants was 69.9 percent.

    IV.4  A Multicultural Society

    New Zealand is becoming an increasingly multicultural society. Figure 23 gives a broad indication of the arrival of various ethnic group in New Zealand. At the 1996 Census there were more than 200 separate ethnic identities represented, though fewer than 30 had more than 4,000 members.

    Ethnicity has traditionally been measured in terms of ancestry or the different degrees of ethnic blood that a person had. In recent years the definition of ethnicity has broadened extensively as ethnic identity has come to be recognised as something more intricate, involving personal identification and individual perception and choice. In fact ethnicity is a fluid concept and a person may identify with one or several ethnic groups. To accommodate this at the 1996 Census, respondents were asked to "Tick as many circles as you need to show which ethnic groups(s) you belong to". While this means that some people will be counted more than once because they have specified more than one ethnic group, using every response in this way allows us to explore the rich ethnic mixtures which our society offers.

    Figure 23: 
		Migrants to New Zealand

    In 1996, over 15 percent of New Zealanders indicated that they belonged to more than one ethnic group, up significantly from only five percent at the 1991 Census (Table 12). Most of this increase is likely to be the result of the rewording of the census question, although a rise in inter-ethnic relationships may also be a factor. Children were more likely to have a multiethnic identity than were adults, with 23 percent of all New Zealand children under five years belonging to more than one ethnic group.

    Table 12: Selected Demographic Characteristics of Main Ethnic Groups

      1996 Characteristics
    Ethnic Group Census Population Population Change Belong to more than one Ethnic Group Aged under 5 years Born Overseas Median Age
      1991 1996 1991-1996        
      Thousand Percent Percent Years
    European 2,783,025 2,879,085 3.5 17.3 7.3 13.7 34.6
    Maori 434,847 523,371 20.4 47.8 13.7 1.4 21.4
    Pacific Island 167,070 202,233 21.0 38.6 15.1 42.2 20.4
    Asian 99,759 173,502 73.9 18.5 8.7 74.7 26.6
    Total 3,373,926 3,618,300 7.2 15.5 7.7 17.5 33..

    Note Census counts are based on total response for each ethnic group. Therefore they do not sum the total

     


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