Recent sharp declines in fertility in populous nations such as China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Brazil, in particular, has slowed down the world population growth. According to a UN Report on World Population Prospects the estimated increase during 1985-95 was much lower at 57 million. Fertility has declined considerably in many regions, in some cases without any substantial social and economic development.

Fresh evidence on increased contraceptive acceptance in developing countries, increased commitment of governments to family planning programmes and the onset of fertility decline in some countries of sub-Saharan Africa offer hope for slower growth in the future. However, there are still many countries in the pre-transition stage while there is a substantial built-in momentum for further growth in others - a legacy of past high fertility (Kandiah & Horiuchi, 1995).

Latest United Nation's projections (medium series) indicates a prospective world population by the year 2050 which is roughly three-fifths larger at about nine and a half billion (Figure 1). As 'sub-replacement' fertility is now the general norm in the developed world, virtually all of this large growth will take place in the developing regions. Their share of the world's population will grow from 80 to 88 percent (Table 1).

(1)

More Developed Regions comprise all regions of Europe and Northern America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan.

(2)

Less Developed Regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan) and Latin America and the Caribbean, and the regions of Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.

Source: United Nations - World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision

Two evolving population trends are likely to take central stage in the developing countries in the coming decades, viz. population ageing (a direct consequence of transition to low fertility), and increasing rural to urban movement of population, especially the concentration of population in a small number of large urban centres. The world's cities are growing by one million people every week. By the year 2025, two-thirds of the world's inhabitants will be urban dwellers, posing challenges for effective strategies to deal with problems of housing, unemployment, sanitation, pollution, crime, violence and transport congestion.

Population stabilisation remains a critical goal for us all, within (as the World Plan of Action states) the framework of linking population and development policy to the rights and aspirations of individual women and men (Sadik, 1997). It is in the wider interest and well-being of all the world's inhabitants. In the future the issue probably is going to be "less about how many people the earth can physically support, than how many it can support at a level of living tolerable by modern standards."

From a national perspective, this population conference comes at an appropriate time - just near the end of a millennium. It seems appropriate, therefore, to undertake a demographic stocktaking, to take a brief look at where we were 100 years ago and how much progress we have made since then. This is not meant as a nostalgic binge but to highlight our achievements and draw attention to the vulnerability of demographic trends and patterns to shifts in economic conditions, environment, societal norms and values, government policies, as well as other national and international events (wars, epidemics, etc.). They also indicate the formidable problems a demographer faces in charting future demographic trends.

At the turn of the 20th century we were still a few thousand people short of the one million mark. Migration had been the dominant element in population growth, but natural increase (excess of births over deaths) had just replaced it and the growth dynamics have stayed that way since then. By present day standards infant mortality was relatively high and life expectancy was low. Almost 100 out of every 1,000 live births used to die within the first year of life. Evidence drawn from the non-Maori Life Tables for 1896-1901 suggests that a new-born boy could expect to live about 57 years and a new-born girl could expect to live 60 years. Transition in fertility, from a relatively high to low level, had already begun. Families were becoming smaller. Consensual unions, divorce and out of wedlock births were taboo. As our economy depended largely on primary production we were still predominantly rural dwellers, although urbanisation was on the march.

Men outnumbered women by about 11 percent but their numerical advantage was in the wane. Given our migration gains, and the high fertility and mortality of the late 19th century, we were a relatively youthful population with half the population below 23 years of age. Children outnumbered elderly by eight to one. Population ageing, which is now the rage, had already begun.

Maori population, as defined and captured by the five yearly censuses, was still on the decline but the trend was about to reverse. The Maori numbered 42 thousand at the 1896 Census and made up just 6 percent of all New Zealand residents.

III.1

Population Size and Growth Rate

In terms of size our population has grown from an estimated 808,000 in 1900 to 3.7 million at present (Figure 2). Natural increase (excess of births over deaths) contributed about five-sixths of this growth. The growth rate has averaged 1.4 percent per annum this century but the pace of growth has varied significantly, from one intercensal period to another, largely because of marked fluctuations in the size and direction of external migration balance.

The first million was recorded in 1908, but it took another 44 years to add the second million. However, with a growth rate averaging just under 2 percent per annum, and migration contributing one-fifth of the growth, it took only 21 years between 1952 and 1973 to add the third million. Twenty four years have elapsed since then, but we are some way away from the fourth million. Two factors have contributed to the marked slow down in the growth rate, viz. a significant downturn in natural increase and low or negative net external migration.

Since its peak in 1961, when births outnumbered deaths by 43,600, the natural increase dropped by 44 percent to 24,300 in 1985, recovered briefly to 33,600 in 1990, but fell to 29,100 in 1996 (Figure 3). On the other hand, except for the latest intercensal period, net external migration has been either negative or small (Figure 4). For example, the growth rate averaged less than 0.3 percent per annum during 1976-81, when relatively large migration outflow partly offset natural increase. It picked up in the subsequent decade, averaging 0.8 percent per annum, but migration's contribution was again negative. During the latest intercensal period (1991-96), New Zealand's population grew by roughly a quarter of a million, despite a significant drop in natural increase. The growth rate averaged 1.4 percent per annum. Migration contributed about one-third of total growth, as the change in immigration policy saw a sharp upturn in the number of persons wanting to settle here (Statistics New Zealand, 1996).

III.2

Fertility Trends and Patterns

Of all the various dynamics of population growth, fertility trends and patterns have played a major role in determining the size and structure of New Zealand's population over the years. The secular trend in New Zealand fertility has been downwards this century, except for a 'baby boom' which followed the end of World War 2. The boom was caused largely by a dramatic shift towards early and near universal marriage. Childbearing became concentrated in progressively younger reproductive ages and within shorter intervals (Khawaja 1985; Jackson and Pool, 1994).

The Age group 20-24 years became the most common age group for child-bearing. Typically, the women born in 1931, who reached 20 in 1951, had an average of 2.4 children by age 30, compared with 1.4 children for women born in 1905. These factors pushed the total fertility rate to a high of 4.2 births per woman, virtually double the depression time low of 2.1 births per woman (Figure 5). The number of births climbed, from less than 45,000 in 1945 to over 65,000 in 1961. Over a million babies were born in just two decades.

The subsequent downturn in fertility was equally dramatic and coincided with the introduction of the oral contraceptive pill, although the 'cause and effect' relationship is not clear. In common with Australia, Canada, England, the United States, and other developed countries, New Zealand experienced significant changes in family formation patterns.

III.2.1  Fewer and Late Marriages

For most part of this century, nuptiality levels and patterns had played a pivotal role in determining the level and pattern of fertility. Childbearing invariably followed marriage. The relationship between marriage and childbearing is not strong anymore. In fact, given the advent of de facto unions and the growing incidence of extra-marital childbearing, marriage is less relevant to childbearing now.

The number of legal marriages has dropped steadily over the last quarter of a century. Only 21,506 marriages were registered in 1996, about 21 percent fewer than in 1971. About one in three marriages in 1996 involved the remarriage of one or both partners. Of those who remarried in 1996, 89 percent were divorced. This partly reflects the rise in the incidence of divorce since the early 1980s. The latest marriage rate (17.7 marriages per 1,000 not-married population aged 16 years and over) is barely two-fifths of the peak rate of 45.5 per 1,000 recorded in 1971. Growth in de facto relationships, the trend toward delayed marriage and the growing number of New Zealanders remaining single have all contributed to the marked drop in the marriage rate (Statistics New Zealand, 1996).

The median age at first marriage for females, which had fallen from 25.6 years in 1945 to 21.7 years in 1971, has risen gradually to 27.1 years in 1996, an increase of 5.4 years ( Figure 6).

The proportion of women never married at ages 25-29 years has jumped four fold from less than 11 percent in 1971 to 48 percent in 1996, and at ages 30-34 years, from 6 percent to over 26 percent (Figure 7). Early childbearing has given way to older parenting.

Figures 6 and 7 illustrate changes in nuptiality and childbearing patterns.

Average family size, as measured by the annual birth rates, has fallen below the replacement level since 1980, except for a brief recovery during 1988-1993, and stood at just under 2 births per woman in 1996 (Figure 5). The replacement level is the level of fertility required by a population to replace itself without migration. As Figure 8 above shows the cumulative fertility rate by selected ages has dropped steadily among successive birth cohorts of New Zealand women. However, as Figure 5 indicates no real birth cohort of New Zealand women has yet failed to replace itself. Sub-replacement fertility has been the general rule in most developed nations for over two decades now. Some countries like Italy, Germany, Spain, Netherlands have recorded rates as low as 1.5 births per woman (Figure 9).