Trade
Trade figures for the month of February 1998 versus February 1997, show a more significant impact from the Asian Crisis than was apparent in January.
The picture shows 8 rises and 11 falls, 7 of them in Asia, with the total down 7.9%.
The January figures showed only a 2.2% decline.
At this point we cannot say how accurately this reflects the trend for exports in the period ahead.
What the monthly out-turns, and those for the February year, also show is the strength of some of our larger markets and the breadth of our export base.
In the year to February 1998 across 20 nations, exports were up in 12 cases and down in eight, for a total increase in export value of 3.1%.
That included some very major rises, for example 20% to the United States, 21% to Singapore, and 31% to Russia.
New Zealand’s export base through the 1990s has been diversifying as well as expanding. Total exports grew by 54% in the period from 1990 to 1997, a significant gain on earlier growth rates, with non-food exports up almost 80%.
This performance is even more notable given that through some of this period exporters had to cope with a rapidly appreciating dollar.
The 16% weakening in the TWI since last April improves the environment for exporters considerably.
The effects of these currency movements is reflected in non-commodity manufactured exports, which after averaging close to 16% growth a year in 1991-95, fell back to an average annual rate of 0.6% from September ‘95 to March ‘97.
Since then, they have kicked back up to an annual growth rate above 12% in the second half of last year.